Real-time tracking of key economic indicators including yield curves, employment data, credit conditions, and manufacturing activity to assess recession probability, with fallback to daily static data.
Inverted yield curves historically precede recessions by 6-24 months
Weekly unemployment filings - leading indicator of labor market stress
Triggers recession if 3m avg unemployment rises 0.5pp from recent low
Widening spreads indicate increasing credit risk and market stress
Rising delinquencies signal consumer financial stress
Values below 50 indicate manufacturing contraction
Composite index designed to predict economic turning points
Rail freight carloads proxy for economic activity
Rising delinquencies indicate business distress and economic strain
High volatility indicates market stress and uncertainty
Dollar strength relative to major currencies
Rising gold indicates flight to safety amid economic stress
High 24h price change indicates broader risk asset stress
Aggressive rate hikes historically precede recessions